The aim of the EUR-OCEANS Consortium is to favour joint initiatives between key Research Performing Organisations (RPOs) and Research Funding Organisations (RFOs) across Europe, to help the community make significant jumps in marine sciences during the next decades. This is implemented by organising and sponsoring activities which focus on hot topics only and can lead to wider European (FP8, JPI…) projects. These activities include Gordon-like conferences, flagship programmes, foresight workshops and public outreach.
The focus of the Consortium is on the impact of climate/global change on marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, and the construction of scenarios relevant to the emerging International Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
One of EUR-OCEANS flagship projects is EcoScenarios - Developing seasonal and spatial foodweb models through novel statistical modelling – tools for constructing scenarios under future global change.
This two-year project, running between 01/09/2010 and 31/08/2012, addresses the EUR-OCEANS topic of the ”Elaboration of scenarios to better quantify the impacts of global change on marine ecosystems”.
The project involves the following leading scientists and institutions:
* Nils-Christian Stenseth (co-ordinator) and Marcos Llope, (CEES) Oslo University
* Christian Möllmann, (IHF) University of Hamburg
* Thorsten Blenckner, (Baltic Nest Institute) Stockholm Resilience Center
* Martin Edwards, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science.
focus and objectives
The focus of EcoScenarios is to “Model spatiotemporal, resolved foodweb dynamics in different ecosystems along biotic and abiotic gradients with a special emphasis on predicting ecosystem regime shifts ”. Based on the novel modelling approach EcoScenarios will evaluate the future development of these ecosystems under different scenarios of global change including socio‐economic consequences.
The objectives of the project are, more specifically:
(1a) to develop seasonal and spatially food-web models for the Baltic Sea, Skagerrak/Kattegat and the North Sea
(1b) to use these to explain and project seasonal and spatial food-web dynamics under different scenarios of global change (i.e. overfishing, climate and eutroph.)
(2a) to link these models to simple economic models
(2b) to use these bio-economic models to adress policy questions and socio-ecological impacts
More information can be found on the EUR-OCEANS and EcoScenarios website.