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Publications
The Baltic Nest Institute is prioritizing making the Nest model as transparent as possible. For this reason, we strive to make underlying model assumption publicly available in the format of international peer-reviewed scientific publications. Please find below a link to full references to the scientific publications from Baltic Nest Institute. Contact the corresponding author for a reprint of any article listed below.
2010-02-04
Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical- biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-2005
K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafson, R. Hordoir, A. Höglund, I. Kuznetsov, H. E. M. Meier, T. Neumann, O. P. Savchuk
The objectives of the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) are to calculate the combined effects of changing climate and...


2010-01-07
Computations of energy for diapycnal mixing in the Baltic Sea due to internal wave drag acting on wind-driven barotropic currents
Nohr, C. and B. G. Gustafsson
The pathways of energy supply for mixing the deep waters of the Baltic Sea is largely unknown. In this paper, a parameterization of the internal wave drag forces on barotropic motion is developed and...


2009-12-05
Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans
Leavitt, Peter R., S. C. Fritz, N. J. Anderson, P. A. Baker, T. Blenckner, L. Bunting, J. Catalan, D. J. Conley, W. Hobbs, E. Jeppesen, A. Korhola, S. McGowan, K. Rühland, J. A. Rusak, G. L. Simpson,...
The premise of this article is that climate effects on lakes can be quantified most effectively by the integration of process-oriented limnological studies with paleolimnological research, particularly...


2009-11-18
Towards an understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens of PCBs using CoZMoMAN.
Breivik, Knut; Czub, Gertje; McLachlan, Michael S. and Wania, Frank
Different factors affect how organic contaminants released into the environment over time distribute and accumulate, enter various food-chains, and potentially cause toxic effects in wildlife and...


2009-09-26
Modelling diffuse nitrogen loadings of ungauged and unmonitored lakes in Denmark: application of an integrated modelling framework
H. Thodsen, B. Kronvang, H. E. Andersen, S. E. Larsen, J. Windolf, T. B. Jørgensen, and L. Troldborg
According to the EU Water Framework Directive all freshwater bodies must obtain good ecological status by 2015. In Denmark this means that all lakes with a surface area above 5 ha (∼600 lakes) must be...


2009-09-14
Landscape elements and river chemistry as affected by river regulation – a 3-D perspective
Smedberg, E., C. Humborg, M. Jacobsson, and C.-M. Mörth
We tested the hypothesis whether individual land classes within a river catchment contribute equally to river loading with dissolved constituents or whether some land classes act as "hot spots" to...


2009-06-08
Revision of the country allocation of nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea Action Plan - Section A: Hydrological adjusted riverine loads and atmospheric loads from different countries averaged for...
Fredrik Wulff, Christoph Humborg, Miguel Rodriguez Medina, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Oleg Savchuk, Alexander Sokolov
HELCOM has asked BNI to revise the country-wise nutrient allocations of the Baltic Sea Action Plan using the new data available on atmospheric loads (EMEP) and more recent calculations on loads from...


2009-06-05
Bycatch in gillnet fisheries - an overlooked threat to waterbird populations
Žydelis, R., Bellebaum, J., Österblom, H., Vetemaa, M., Schirmeister, B., Stipniece, A., Dagys, M., van Eerden, M. and Garthe, S.
Bird mortality in fishing gear is a global conservation issue and it is recognized that bycatch in industrial longline and trawl fisheries threatens several seabird species. Little is known however...


2009-06-03
A dynamic sea ice model based on the formation direction of leads
Nohr, C., Björk, G. and Gustafsson, B.G.
A dynamic ice model is presented using a novel approach where the memory of weak directions in the ice cover is stored. The model computes ice motion, ice deformation and the associated dynamic ice...


2009-05-20
Analysis of trophic networks and carbon flows in south-eastern Baltic coastal ecosystems
Tomczak, MT, Müller-Karulis, B. Jär, L, Kotta, L Martin, G, Minde,A,  Põllumäe, A, Razinkovas, A, Strake, S, Bucas, M, Blenckner, T
Carbon flows in five south-eastern Baltic coastal ecosystems (Puck Bay, Curonian Lagoon, Lithuanian coast, Gulf of Riga coast and Pärnu Bay) were compared on the basis of ECOPATH models using 12 common...


2009-05-20
How well do ecosystem indicators communicate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication?
McQuatters-Gollop, A., A. J. Gilbert, L. D. Mee, J. E. Vermaat, Y. Artioli, C. Humborg & F. Wulff
Anthropogenic eutrophication affects the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas to various extents. Responses to nutrient loading and methods of monitoring relevant indicators vary regionally,...


2009-05-14
Tackling Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Is Engineering a Solution?
Conley D.J., E. Bonsdorff, J. Carstensen, G. Destouni, B.G. Gustafsson, L.-A. Hanson, N.N. Rabalais, M. Voss, and L. Zillén
Hypoxia, the lack of dissolved O2 in bottom waters, reduces the habitat for living resources. Hypoxic regions in the Baltic Sea enhance P release from sediments and increase N loss. This chemical...


2009-05-11
Response of eutrophication in the eastern Gulf of Finland to nutrient load reduction scenarios
O. P. Savchuk, T. R. Eremina, A. V. Isaev andI. A. Neelov.
The trophic status of the eastern Gulf of Finland, where the largest Baltic metropolis St.Petersburg sits at the mouth of the largest Baltic river Neva, is elevated but existing recommendations on...


2009-05-11
Long-term modeling of large-scale nutrient cycles in the entire Baltic Sea
O. P. Savchuk and F. Wulff

Management of eutrophication in marine ecosystems requires a good understanding of nutrient cycles at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Here, it is shown that the biogeochemical processes...


2009-05-11
The Baltic Sea a century ago — a reconstruction from model simulations, verified by observations
O. P. Savchuk, F. Wulff, S. Hille, C. Humborg, F. Pollehne

“Pre-industrial" trophic conditions in the Baltic Sea were simulated with SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary BAltic Long-Term large Scale) model. External nutrient inputs to the major basins of the Baltic...


2009-05-11
Satellite measurements of cyanobacterial bloom frequency in the Baltic Sea: interannual and spatial variability
M. Kahru, O. P. Savchuk and R. Elmgren.
Owing to the potentially harmful character of nitrogen-fixing filamentous cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea, a capacity to predict their occurrence is of interest. We quantified the surface...


2009-04-20
Tracing terrestrial organic matter by dS and dC signatures in a subarctic estuary
Alling, V., Humborg, C., Mörth, C.-M., Rahm, L. and Pollehne, F.
A key issue to understanding the transformations of terrestrial organic carbon in the ocean is to disentangle the latter from marine-produced organic matter. We applied a multiple stable isotope...


2009-04-20
Silicon and the Baltic Sea: Long-term Si decrease in the Baltic Sea - A conceivable ecological risk?
Humborg, C., Rahm, L., Conley, D.J., Tamminen, T. and von Bodungen, B. 2008


2009-04-20
Nutrient budgets for European seas: A measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies
Artioli. A., Friedrich, J., Gilbert, A.J., McQuatters-Gollop, A., Mee, L.D., Vermaat, J.C., Wulff, F., Humborg, C., Palmeri, L. and Pollehne
Socio-economic development in Europe has exerted increasing pressure on the marine environment. Eutrophication, caused by nutrient enrichment, is evident in regions of all European seas. Its severity...


2009-04-20
Modelling nutrient fluxes from sub-arctic basins: Comparison of pristine vs. dammed rivers
Sferratore, A., Billen, G., Garnier, J., Smedberg, E., Humborg, C. and Rahm, L
The deterministic Riverstrahler model of river functioning is applied for the first time to sub-arctic catchments. Seasonal nutrient (N, P, Si) deliveries to the coastal zone are simulated, and...


2008-12-15
Det moderna fiskets stråtrövare
Crona, B. and Österblom, H.
I denna femte utgåva i Svenska FAO-kommitténs skriftserie belyses de svårigheter som fiskeripolitiken i Europa, liksom i många andra regioner, har att nå de uppsatta målen för ekonomisk, social och...


2008-10-20
Changes in dissolved silicate loads to the Baltic Sea - The effects of lakes and reservoirs
Humborg, C., Smedberg, E., Rodriguez Medina, M. and Mörth, C.-M.
We tested the hypothesis that dissolved silicate (DSi) yields [kg km−2 yr−1] of 82 major watersheds of the Baltic Sea can be expressed as a function of the hydraulic load (HL) as a measure of water...


2008-04-29
Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea — past and possible future perspectives
Humborg, C., C.-M. Mörth, M. Sundbom, and F. Wulff.
The paper reviews critical processes for the landsea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage...


2008-04-29
Human-induced trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts in the Baltic Sea
Österblom, H., Hansson, S., Larsson, U., Hjerne, O., F. Wulff,  Elmgren, R. and C. Folke
The ecosystems of coastal and enclosed seas are under increasing anthropogenic pressure worldwide, with Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black and Baltic Seas as well known examples. We use...


2008-04-29
Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of  Finland: The combined use of 1 D and 3 D modelling in assessing  longterm state scenarios with high spatial resolution
Pitkänen, H., Kiirikki, M., Savchuk, O., Räike, A. and F. Wulff
An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first...


2008-04-29
The MARE Research Program 1999-2006 - Reflections on program management
Johansson, S., F. Wulff and E. Bonsdorff


2008-04-29
Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing  cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea
Vahtera, E., Conley, D, Gustafsson, B., Kuosa, H., Pitkänen, H.,  Savchuk, O. P., Tamminen, T., Wasmund, N, Viitasalo, M., Voss, M and  F. Wulff.
Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the...


2007-11-22
Modeling Riverine Nutrient Transport to the Baltic Sea: A Large-scale Approach
Carl-Magnus Mörth, Christoph Humborg, Hanna Eriksson, Åsa Danielsson, Miguel Rodriguez Medina, Stefan Löfgren, Dennis P. Swaney, and Lars Rahm Ambio 36: 124-133
We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling...


2007-11-22
Modeling the Baltic Sea Eutrophication in a Decision Support System
Oleg P. Savchuk and Fredrik Wulff Ambio 36: 141-148
SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system...


2007-11-22
Management Options and Effects on a Marine Ecosystem: Assessing the Future of the Baltic
Fredrik Wulff, Oleg P. Savchuk, Alexander Sokolov, Christoph Humborg, and Carl-Magnus Mörth Ambio 36: 243-249
We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address...


2007-11-22
Managing Baltic Sea Fisheries under Contrasting Production and Predation Regimes: Ecosystem Model Analyses
Sture Hansson, Olle Hjerne, Chris Harvey, James F. Kitchell, Sean P. Cox, and Timothy E. Essington
Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a...



Baltic Nest Institute Sweden | Stockholm Resilience Centre | Stockholm University | SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden | Telephone:  +46 (0)8 674 7070
Baltic Nest Institute Denmark | Aarhus University | Fredriksborgsvej 399 | DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark | Telephone:  +45 4630 1200