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Publications
The Baltic Nest Institute is prioritizing making the Nest model as transparent as possible. For this reason, we strive to make underlying model assumption publicly available in the format of international peer-reviewed scientific publications. Please find below a link to full references to the scientific publications from Baltic Nest Institute. Contact the corresponding author for a reprint of any article listed below.
2010-05-26
Application of eco-exergy for assessment of ecosystem health and development of structurally dynamic models Jingjie Zhang, Zeren Gurkan and Sven Erik Jørgensen Eco-exergy has been widely used in the assessment of ecosystem health, parameter estimations, calibrations, validations and prognoses. It offers insights into the understanding of ecosystem dynamics... 
2010-05-20 Testing relationships between macroalgal cover and Secchi depth in the Baltic Sea Dorte Krause-Jensen, Jacob Carstensen, Karsten Dahl, Saara Bäck, and Samuli Neuvonen The present study tests whether relationships between macroalgal cover and water quality, recently developed for Danish coastal waters, are more universal and also applies at the other extreme of the...
2010-05-20 Phytoplankton biomass response to nitrogen inputs: a method for WFD boundary setting applied to Danish coastal waters Jacob Carstensen and Peter Henriksen Reference conditions and boundary values between Water Framework Directive status classes were estimated for phytoplankton biomass from empirical relationships relating: (1) nitrogen inputs from land...
2010-05-20 Ecosystem thresholds with hypoxia Daniel J. Conley, Jacob Carstensen, Raquel Vaquer-Sunyer, and Carlos M. Duarte Hypoxia is one of the common effects of eutrophication in coastal marine ecosystems and is becoming an increasingly prevalent problem worldwide. The causes of hypoxia are associated with excess...
2010-05-19 Tackling Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Is Engineering a Solution? Daniel J . Conley, Erik Bonsdorff, Jacob Carstensen, Georgia Destouni, Bo G. Gustaffson, Lars-Anders Hansson, Nancy N. Rabalais, Maren Voss and Lovisa Zillén Hypoxia, the lack of dissolved O2 in bottom waters, reduces the habitat for living resources. Hypoxic regions in the Baltic Sea enhance P release from sediments and increase N loss. This chemical...
2010-05-19 Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea Daniel J . Conley, Svante Björck, Erik Bonsdorff, Jacob Carstensen, Georgia Destouni, Bo G. Gustaffson, Susanna Hietanen, Marloes Kortekaas, Harri Kuosa, H. E. Markus Meier, Baerbel Müller-Karulis,... Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have...
2010-05-19 Return to Neverland: Shifting Baselines Affect Eutrophication Restoration Targets Carlos M. Duarte, Daniel J. Conley, Jacob Carstensen and María Sánchez-Camacho The implicit assumption of many scientific and regulatory frameworks that ecosystems impacted by human pressures may be reverted to their original condition by suppressing the pressure was tested using...
2010-05-19 Ecological thresholds and regime shifts: approaches to identification Tom Andersen, Jacob Carstensen, Emilio Hernández-García and Carlos M. Duarte There is an apparent gap between the prominence of present theoretical frameworks involving ecological thresholds and regime shifts, and the paucity of efforts to conduct simple tests and quantitative...
2010-03-26 Scenario Analysis on Protein Consumption and Climate Change Effects on Riverine N Export to the Baltic Sea Hanna Eriksson Hägg, Christoph Humborg, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Miguel Rodriguez Medina and Fredrik Wulff This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff...
2010-02-04 Quality assessment of state-of-the-art coupled physical- biogeochemical models in hind cast simulations 1970-2005 K. Eilola, B. G. Gustafson, R. Hordoir, A. Höglund, I. Kuznetsov, H. E. M. Meier, T. Neumann, O. P. Savchuk The objectives of the project ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modeling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making) are to calculate the combined effects of changing climate and...
2010-01-07 Computations of energy for diapycnal mixing in the Baltic Sea due to internal wave drag acting on wind-driven barotropic currents Nohr, C. and B. G. Gustafsson The pathways of energy supply for mixing the deep waters of the Baltic Sea is largely unknown. In this paper, a parameterization of the internal wave drag forces on barotropic motion is developed and...
2009-12-05 Paleolimnological evidence of the effects on lakes of energy and mass transfer from climate and humans Leavitt, Peter R., S. C. Fritz, N. J. Anderson, P. A. Baker, T. Blenckner, L. Bunting, J. Catalan, D. J. Conley, W. Hobbs, E. Jeppesen, A. Korhola, S. McGowan, K. Rühland, J. A. Rusak, G. L. Simpson,... The premise of this article is that climate effects on lakes can be quantified most effectively by the integration of process-oriented limnological studies with paleolimnological research, particularly...
2009-11-18 Towards an understanding of the link between environmental emissions and human body burdens of PCBs using CoZMoMAN. Breivik, Knut; Czub, Gertje; McLachlan, Michael S. and Wania, Frank Different factors affect how organic contaminants released into the environment over time distribute and accumulate, enter various food-chains, and potentially cause toxic effects in wildlife and...
2009-09-26 Modelling diffuse nitrogen loadings of ungauged and unmonitored lakes in Denmark: application of an integrated modelling framework H. Thodsen, B. Kronvang, H. E. Andersen, S. E. Larsen, J. Windolf, T. B. Jørgensen, and L. Troldborg According to the EU Water Framework Directive all freshwater bodies must obtain good ecological status by 2015. In Denmark this means that all lakes with a surface area above 5 ha (∼600 lakes) must be...
2009-09-14 Landscape elements and river chemistry as affected by river regulation – a 3-D perspective Smedberg, E., C. Humborg, M. Jacobsson, and C.-M. Mörth We tested the hypothesis whether individual land classes within a river catchment contribute equally to river loading with dissolved constituents or whether some land classes act as "hot spots" to...
2009-06-08 Revision of the country allocation of nutrient reductions in the Baltic Sea Action Plan - Section A: Hydrological adjusted riverine loads and atmospheric loads from different countries averaged for... Fredrik Wulff, Christoph Humborg, Miguel Rodriguez Medina, Carl-Magnus Mörth, Oleg Savchuk, Alexander Sokolov HELCOM has asked BNI to revise the country-wise nutrient allocations of the Baltic Sea Action Plan using the new data available on atmospheric loads (EMEP) and more recent calculations on loads from...
2009-06-05 Bycatch in gillnet fisheries - an overlooked threat to waterbird populations Žydelis, R., Bellebaum, J., Österblom, H., Vetemaa, M., Schirmeister, B., Stipniece, A., Dagys, M., van Eerden, M. and Garthe, S. Bird mortality in fishing gear is a global conservation issue and it is recognized that bycatch in industrial longline and trawl fisheries threatens several seabird species. Little is known however...
2009-06-03 A dynamic sea ice model based on the formation direction of leads Nohr, C., Björk, G. and Gustafsson, B.G. A dynamic ice model is presented using a novel approach where the memory of weak directions in the ice cover is stored. The model computes ice motion, ice deformation and the associated dynamic ice...
2009-05-20 Analysis of trophic networks and carbon flows in south-eastern Baltic coastal ecosystems Tomczak, MT, Müller-Karulis, B. Jär, L, Kotta, L Martin, G, Minde,A, Põllumäe, A, Razinkovas, A, Strake, S, Bucas, M, Blenckner, T Carbon flows in five south-eastern Baltic coastal ecosystems (Puck Bay, Curonian Lagoon, Lithuanian coast, Gulf of Riga coast and Pärnu Bay) were compared on the basis of ECOPATH models using 12 common...
2009-05-20 How well do ecosystem indicators communicate the effects of anthropogenic eutrophication? McQuatters-Gollop, A., A. J. Gilbert, L. D. Mee, J. E. Vermaat, Y. Artioli, C. Humborg & F. Wulff Anthropogenic eutrophication affects the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas to various extents. Responses to nutrient loading and methods of monitoring relevant indicators vary regionally,...
2009-05-14 Tackling Hypoxia in the Baltic Sea: Is Engineering a Solution? Conley D.J., E. Bonsdorff, J. Carstensen, G. Destouni, B.G. Gustafsson, L.-A. Hanson, N.N. Rabalais, M. Voss, and L. Zillén Hypoxia, the lack of dissolved O2 in bottom waters, reduces the habitat for living resources. Hypoxic regions in the Baltic Sea enhance P release from sediments and increase N loss. This chemical...
2009-05-11 Response of eutrophication in the eastern Gulf of Finland to nutrient load reduction scenarios O. P. Savchuk, T. R. Eremina, A. V. Isaev andI. A. Neelov. The trophic status of the eastern Gulf of Finland, where the largest Baltic metropolis St.Petersburg sits at the mouth of the largest Baltic river Neva, is elevated but existing recommendations on...
2009-05-11 Long-term modeling of large-scale nutrient cycles in the entire Baltic Sea O. P. Savchuk and F. Wulff Management of eutrophication in marine ecosystems requires a good understanding of nutrient cycles at the appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Here, it is shown that the biogeochemical processes...
2009-05-11 The Baltic Sea a century ago — a reconstruction from model simulations, verified by observations O. P. Savchuk, F. Wulff, S. Hille, C. Humborg, F. Pollehne “Pre-industrial" trophic conditions in the Baltic Sea were simulated with SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary BAltic Long-Term large Scale) model. External nutrient inputs to the major basins of the Baltic...
2009-05-11 Satellite measurements of cyanobacterial bloom frequency in the Baltic Sea: interannual and spatial variability M. Kahru, O. P. Savchuk and R. Elmgren. Owing to the potentially harmful character of nitrogen-fixing filamentous cyanobacterial blooms in the Baltic Sea, a capacity to predict their occurrence is of interest. We quantified the surface...
2009-04-20 Tracing terrestrial organic matter by dS and dC signatures in a subarctic estuary Alling, V., Humborg, C., Mörth, C.-M., Rahm, L. and Pollehne, F. A key issue to understanding the transformations of terrestrial organic carbon in the ocean is to disentangle the latter from marine-produced organic matter. We applied a multiple stable isotope...
2009-04-20 Silicon and the Baltic Sea: Long-term Si decrease in the Baltic Sea - A conceivable ecological risk? Humborg, C., Rahm, L., Conley, D.J., Tamminen, T. and von Bodungen, B. 2008
2009-04-20 Nutrient budgets for European seas: A measure of the effectiveness of nutrient reduction policies Artioli. A., Friedrich, J., Gilbert, A.J., McQuatters-Gollop, A., Mee, L.D., Vermaat, J.C., Wulff, F., Humborg, C., Palmeri, L. and Pollehne Socio-economic development in Europe has exerted increasing pressure on the marine environment. Eutrophication, caused by nutrient enrichment, is evident in regions of all European seas. Its severity...
2009-04-20 Modelling nutrient fluxes from sub-arctic basins: Comparison of pristine vs. dammed rivers Sferratore, A., Billen, G., Garnier, J., Smedberg, E., Humborg, C. and Rahm, L The deterministic Riverstrahler model of river functioning is applied for the first time to sub-arctic catchments. Seasonal nutrient (N, P, Si) deliveries to the coastal zone are simulated, and...
2008-12-15 Det moderna fiskets stråtrövare Crona, B. and Österblom, H. I denna femte utgåva i Svenska FAO-kommitténs skriftserie belyses de svårigheter som fiskeripolitiken i Europa, liksom i många andra regioner, har att nå de uppsatta målen för ekonomisk, social och...
2008-10-20 Changes in dissolved silicate loads to the Baltic Sea - The effects of lakes and reservoirs Humborg, C., Smedberg, E., Rodriguez Medina, M. and Mörth, C.-M. We tested the hypothesis that dissolved silicate (DSi) yields [kg km−2 yr−1] of 82 major watersheds of the Baltic Sea can be expressed as a function of the hydraulic load (HL) as a measure of water...
2008-04-29 Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea — past and possible future perspectives Humborg, C., C.-M. Mörth, M. Sundbom, and F. Wulff. The paper reviews critical processes for the landsea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage...
2008-04-29 Human-induced trophic cascades and ecological regime shifts in the Baltic Sea Österblom, H., Hansson, S., Larsson, U., Hjerne, O., F. Wulff, Elmgren, R. and C. Folke The ecosystems of coastal and enclosed seas are under increasing anthropogenic pressure worldwide, with Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black and Baltic Seas as well known examples. We use...
2008-04-29 Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: The combined use of 1 D and 3 D modelling in assessing longterm state scenarios with high spatial resolution Pitkänen, H., Kiirikki, M., Savchuk, O., Räike, A. and F. Wulff An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first...
2008-04-29 The MARE Research Program 1999-2006 - Reflections on program management Johansson, S., F. Wulff and E. Bonsdorff
2008-04-29 Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea Vahtera, E., Conley, D, Gustafsson, B., Kuosa, H., Pitkänen, H., Savchuk, O. P., Tamminen, T., Wasmund, N, Viitasalo, M., Voss, M and F. Wulff. Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the...
2007-11-22 Modeling Riverine Nutrient Transport to the Baltic Sea: A Large-scale Approach Carl-Magnus Mörth, Christoph Humborg, Hanna Eriksson, Åsa Danielsson, Miguel Rodriguez Medina, Stefan Löfgren, Dennis P. Swaney, and Lars Rahm Ambio 36: 124-133 We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling...
2007-11-22 Modeling the Baltic Sea Eutrophication in a Decision Support System Oleg P. Savchuk and Fredrik Wulff Ambio 36: 141-148 SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system...
2007-11-22 Management Options and Effects on a Marine Ecosystem: Assessing the Future of the Baltic Fredrik Wulff, Oleg P. Savchuk, Alexander Sokolov, Christoph Humborg, and Carl-Magnus Mörth Ambio 36: 243-249 We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address...
2007-11-22 Managing Baltic Sea Fisheries under Contrasting Production and Predation Regimes: Ecosystem Model Analyses Sture Hansson, Olle Hjerne, Chris Harvey, James F. Kitchell, Sean P. Cox, and Timothy E. Essington Based on an earlier published ecosystem model, we have explored possible effects of different management scenarios for the Baltic Sea. The scenarios include an oligotrophication of the system, a...
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