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Stockholm Resilience Centre
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I work with physical oceanography, software development, data analysis and hydrodynamic modeling.Selected publications:
Wulff, F., Savchuk, O.P., Sokolov, A., Humborg, C. & Mörth, C.-M. (2007) Management options and effects on a marine ecosystem: Assessing the future of the Baltic. Ambio 36 (2-3): 243-249.
We are using the coupled models in a decision support system, Nest, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorus-free detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.
Sokolov, A., Wulff, F. (1998) Swingstations: a Web-based client tool for the Baltic environmental database Computers & Geosciences 25: 863-871.
This paper describes the operation of a web-based computer program designed as a client program for the Baltic Environmental Database. This database contains a large collection of oceanographic data for the Baltic Sea from all Baltic countries, covering observations from 1900 to the present. A database server manages this database allowing user access via the Internet. To investigate the database, a web-based program (SwingStations) was developed. This program works as a client in client/server interaction with the database. It allows data to be selected using graphical user-friendly queries and to analyze the data in numerical and graphical forms. It is also possible to construct vertical profiles of statistics and time series (time-depth graph) of oceanographic parameters for a selected area of the Baltic Sea. SwingStations applet is written in Java&unknown; using Java Foundation Classes Application Programming Interface. This interface is included in the Sun's Java&unknown; Plug-in Virtual Machine that provides complete Java Compatible&unknown; support for all the popular web browsers on major hardware platforms.